Retirement Simulator
See how your savings, Social Security, and spending could perform using Monte Carlo simulation.
Adjust a few key inputs to explore your retirement outlook. 10,000 simulated paths
Models thousands of possible market outcomes to estimate a range of potential results, not a prediction.
1. Your timeline
2. Savings & contributions
3. Retirement spending (today's $)
4. Social Security
Enter the combined estimated monthly Social Security benefit for your household. For simplicity, the simulator assumes the combined benefit begins at the selected household claiming age.
5. Portfolio allocation
Return and volatility assumptions are illustrative long-term planning inputs, not forecasts.
For educational purposes only. ETF examples illustrate funds that may provide exposure to the asset classes shown. They are not recommendations, endorsements, or assurances of future performance. Historical performance does not guarantee future results. Monte Carlo assumptions are illustrative and are not forecasts of any ETF's future returns.
Advanced assumptions
How should I interpret this?
70–89% · Worth reviewing
Below 70% · Higher modeled shortfall risk
These are educational reference bands. Fidelity retirement-planning methodology describes 90%+ as a solid-plan target; Morningstar retirement-income research commonly uses a 90% success target; Schwab notes that results below 70% warrant a closer look. A Monte Carlo result is not a guarantee or individualized financial advice.
Portfolio value projection (Monte Carlo)
Today's $ adjusts future portfolio values for inflation, making amounts comparable in current purchasing power.
ⓘ About annual returns
The tooltip's average annual return is the annualized geometric average of simulated portfolio returns through that age. Contributions, withdrawals, and Social Security are not counted as investment growth.Retirement income at retirement
total
● Social Security
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● Portfolio withdrawals
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Your retirement runway
What would improve my odds?
DataEnvision tests a few simple changes against the same planning assumptions.
Important: This simulator is for informational and educational purposes only. It is not investment, financial, tax, legal, or Social Security advice. Monte Carlo results depend on assumptions and do not predict future returns. Social Security estimates use a simplified claiming-age adjustment around a full retirement age of 67; verify your actual benefit and eligibility with the Social Security Administration.